Transparent results from our daily credit spread picks
Every row above started as a published educational example: a defined-risk credit spread that met a fixed set of numerical criteria at the time it was generated. Once published, it is monitored automatically during market hours and closed according to a pre-stated exit plan — at 50% of the credit received, at twice the credit if it moves against the position, or at two days to expiration, whichever comes first. The outcome is then recorded and published here whether it was a win or a loss.
Win rate is the share of closed examples that were closed at a profit under that exit plan. Average ROC is return on capital — the profit or loss as a percentage of the maximum loss that was at risk on the position, averaged across all closed examples. Because credit spreads are structured to win more often than they lose but to lose more when they lose, a high win rate on its own does not describe the strategy: the two figures have to be read together.
Short strikes are chosen by targeting roughly 0.30 absolute delta on the live option chain, with the long strike a fixed width away to cap the loss. An example only qualifies if the net credit falls between 12% and 50% of the strike width, the estimated probability of profit clears our threshold, the return on capital clears a minimum, and the expiration falls between 7 and 30 days out and does not sit on or after a known earnings date. When nothing meets those criteria, nothing is published — quiet days are a normal and intended outcome, not a gap in the data.
Full detail on the selection logic, the probability model and its simplifications is on our methodology page.
These results assume the stated exit plan was followed mechanically, and they exclude commissions, fees, slippage and taxes. Published credits reflect natural pricing — the short leg's bid minus the long leg's ask — at the moment of the scan, which is closer to a realistic retail fill than a mid-price quote but is still not a guaranteed fill. Your own results would differ. Probability figures are estimates from a model, not forecasts, and defined risk does not mean small risk: the maximum loss on these positions is typically several times the credit collected.
New to this? Start with what a credit spread is, then the step-by-step execution tutorial.